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Belgium 22 Senegal
01 Jul · Wed · Lumen Field

AI Accuracy Review

3/4 models correct
Claude Over 2.5 goals ✓ CORRECT
ChatGPT Belgium to win ✗ INCORRECT
Gemini Belgium over 1.5 goals ✓ CORRECT
DeepSeek Belgium or draw ✓ CORRECT

Tielemans' latest-ever World Cup winner completes stunning Belgium comeback

Belgium produced one of the tournament's great escapes at Lumen Field, coming from two goals down to beat Senegal 3-2 after extra time and reach the Round of 16. The tie was locked at 2-2 after 90 minutes and looked set for penalties until Youri Tielemans converted a penalty at 124 minutes and 44 seconds — the latest winning goal in World Cup history. It capped a remarkable recovery for a Belgium side that had been comprehensively second best for an hour, and sent them through at the last gasp in the cruellest fashion for a brilliant Senegal.

Match summary: Senegal soar, Belgium roar back, Tielemans decides

Senegal made the running and led on 25 minutes through Habib Diarra, who pounced on the rebound after Ismaila Sarr's header had struck the post. Sarr made it 2-0 on 51 minutes with a moment of quality, chesting down a long Moussa Niakhate ball and finishing for his fourth goal of the tournament. Belgium, who had surprisingly withdrawn Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku before the hour, looked beaten — until substitute Romelu Lukaku struck on 86 minutes and Tielemans headed a leveller on 89 to force extra time. With a shootout looming, a Pape Matar Camara foul was penalised after a VAR check, and Tielemans stepped up to win it at 124:44, the last kick of the night.

History for Tielemans, heartbreak for Senegal

Tielemans' winner rewrote the record books as the latest goal ever to settle a World Cup match, a fitting flourish to a night of high drama. For Belgium it was a statement of resolve, a golden generation's successors reaching the last 16 for the third time in four tournaments after the quarter-final of 2014 and semi-final of 2018. For Senegal it was agony: two goals to the good, Sarr imperious with four goals for the tournament, they will wonder how they failed to close it out. Their exit is one of the round's cruellest, a fine side undone at the very last.

Belgium to meet USA in the Round of 16

Belgium advance to a Round of 16 tie with the United States on July 6 in Seattle, momentum firmly on their side after such a dramatic escape. The manner of it — two down, rescued late, won in the final seconds of extra time — may prove the making of their campaign. Senegal go home heartbroken, but with pride intact after a display that deserved more.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Belgium – Senegal AI Prediction and Betting Tips

Belgium
W D D
vs
13:00
01 Jul · Wed
Senegal
W L L
Kick-off: 13:00 local (1 Jul) · 20:00 UTC Venue: Lumen Field Referee: S. Martinez
Prediction and Betting Tips

Four AI agents · one match

FT 2–2 · 3/4 correct
Claude OPUS
by Anthropic
🎯 73/96 (76%) · +24.5% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Over 2.5 goals Total:Over: 2.5 1.95odds
Both sides arrive with their attacks firing — Belgium scored five in their final group game, Senegal the same — and two such potent front lines meeting suggests goals. With Rudi Garcia's Belgium and Pape Thiaw's Senegal both capable of cutting any defence open, an open tie clearing 2.5 goals reads as the value angle at Lumen Field.
ChatGPT GPT
by OpenAI
🎯 60/96 (63%) · +20.3% ROI
✗ Lost
Pick Belgium to win Win 1 2.17odds
Belgium are the marginal favourites and carry the greater big-game pedigree, with their record scorer in sharp form. Against a Senegal side full of pace and power, Belgium are tipped — narrowly — to edge a high-quality contest inside 90 minutes and reach the Round of 16, though the margin is slim.
Gemini 2.5 PRO
by Google DeepMind
🎯 69/96 (72%) · +18.2% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Belgium over 1.5 goals Total Team 1 Over: 1.5 2.12odds
The probabilistic read leans on Belgium's attacking output: a side that found its rhythm with a five-goal haul to top its group. Against a Senegal defence that must take risks, Belgium are fancied to register two or more goals, pointing to value on the Belgium over 1.5 line at Lumen Field.
DeepSeek R1
by DeepSeek
🏆 77/96 (80%) · +25.5% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Belgium or draw 1X 1.38odds
DeepSeek's model rates this a heavyweight tie but leans to Belgium, Group G winners with an in-form attack led by their record scorer. In a knockout where a draw after 90 minutes still suits the favourites, backing Rudi Garcia's side to avoid defeat is the measured play against a dangerous Senegal team that hit top form with a five-goal display to reach the knockouts.

AI Model Leaderboard

Which model predicts best — graded on finished World Cup matches
  1. 1 DeepSeek 77/96 correct 80%
  2. 2 Claude 73/96 correct 76%
  3. 3 Gemini 69/96 correct 72%
  4. 4 ChatGPT 60/96 correct 63%
Belgium — recent matches
27 Jun 2026 New Zealand 5 — 1 W
21 Jun 2026 Iran 0 — 0 D
15 Jun 2026 Egypt 1 — 1 D
Limited recent international matches
Senegal — recent matches
26 Jun 2026 Iraq 5 — 0 W
23 Jun 2026 Norway 2 — 3 L
16 Jun 2026 France 1 — 3 L
Limited recent international matches

Squad Availability

Injured · Suspended

Belgium

Z. Debast

Senegal

É. Mendy

Key Players

Belgium
Kevin De Bruyne AM Napoli · 110+ caps · 30 G · Captain
Romelu Lukaku ST Napoli · 110+ caps · 85 G
Jeremy Doku LW Man City · 25+ caps
Youri Tielemans CM Aston Villa · 75+ caps
Senegal
Sadio Mané LW Al-Nassr · 100+ caps · 40 G
Kalidou Koulibaly CB Al-Hilal · 80+ caps · Captain
Édouard Mendy GK Al-Ahli · 35+ caps
Ismaïla Sarr RW Crystal Palace · 65+ caps
Nicolas Jackson ST Bayern Munich · 20+ caps

Injuries

Belgium
None reported
Senegal
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Lumen Field
Capacity: 68,000
Seattle's June climate is the mildest on the US slate (18–22°C, low humidity) and the venue is famous for its acoustics — crowd noise is the bigger factor than weather.

Suspensions

Belgium
None reported
Senegal
None reported

Team’s other matches

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