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Spain 21 Belgium
10 Jul · Fri · SoFi Stadium

AI Accuracy Review

3/4 models correct
Claude Under 2.5 goals ✗ INCORRECT
ChatGPT Spain to win ✓ CORRECT
Gemini Belgium under 1.5 goals ✓ CORRECT
DeepSeek Spain or draw ✓ CORRECT

Merino strikes late again as Spain edge Belgium to reach the semis

Spain are into the semi-finals after Mikel Merino's late winner settled a tight quarter-final with Belgium 2-1 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. It was the second time in the knockout stage that Merino has delivered a decisive late goal, having also broken Portuguese hearts in the Round of 16, and his intervention spared a Spanish side that had dominated possession but too often lacked a cutting edge. Belgium pushed Spain hard and will feel they deserved more, but their wait for a return to the last four goes on.

Match summary: Spain lead, Belgium respond, Merino decides

Spain settled quickly and took the lead in the first half, their patient build-up finally rewarded as they went in front. Belgium, who had impressed in thrashing the United States 4-1 in the previous round, refused to buckle and levelled to set up a tense finale. Spain controlled the ball for long spells but were wasteful in the final third, with Lamine Yamal a constant threat down the right yet unable to find the finishing touch to match his creativity. Just as the tie looked destined for extra time, Merino arrived once more, timing his run and finishing to send Spain through and break Belgian resistance at the death.

A clutch habit and a nearly-man's lament

Merino's knack for the decisive late goal is fast becoming one of the tournament's defining subplots — twice now in the knockouts he has been the man to settle it, and his value to Luis de la Fuente's side has never been clearer. Spain's superiority did not always translate into chances, and de la Fuente will want more ruthlessness from a forward line built around the prodigious Yamal if they are to go all the way. For Belgium, elimination is a bitter blow: a golden generation's successors had dreamed of a first semi-final since 2018, and having run Spain so close, they exit with regret rather than reward.

What's next: Spain meet France in Dallas

Spain go through to a mouth-watering semi-final against France on July 14 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, two unbeaten sides colliding for a place in the final. Three of our four AI models called it, led by the DeepSeek double chance on Spain; only the under 2.5 goals call missed as the tie produced three. Belgium head home to reflect on a campaign that promised much and ended agonisingly short.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Spain – Belgium AI Prediction and Betting Tips

Spain
W W W W D
vs
12:00
10 Jul · Fri
Belgium
W W W D D
Kick-off: 12:00 local (10 Jul) · 19:00 UTC Venue: SoFi Stadium Referee: TBA
Prediction and Betting Tips

Four AI agents · one match

FT 2–1 · 3/4 correct
Claude OPUS
by Anthropic
🎯 76/102 (75%) · +17.0% ROI
✗ Lost
Pick Under 2.5 goals Total:Under: 2.5 2.02odds
Quarter-finals between elite European sides often turn cautious, and with Spain's patient control against Belgium's counter-attacking threat, both may prioritise not losing. That points to a tight, low-scoring affair — under 2.5 goals reads as the value angle at SoFi.
ChatGPT GPT
by OpenAI
🎯 63/102 (62%) · +12.7% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Spain to win Win 1 1.64odds
Spain's quality, control and tournament trajectory give them the edge. Against a Belgium side that was ruthless against the USA but will face a sterner test here, ChatGPT's read backs de la Fuente's men to impose their game and win inside 90 minutes.
Gemini 2.5 PRO
by Google DeepMind
🎯 74/102 (73%) · +9.4% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Belgium under 1.5 goals Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 1.26odds
Spain's dominance of the ball should limit Belgium's opportunities. While the Red Devils carry a threat in De Ketelaere and Lukaku, Gemini's model expects Spain's control to keep Belgium's output under 1.5 goals.
DeepSeek R1
by DeepSeek
🏆 82/102 (80%) · +15.9% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Spain or draw 1X 1.19odds
DeepSeek's model makes Spain favourites in this heavyweight quarter-final: the European champions are growing into the tournament, having ended a long knockout drought against Portugal, with Lamine Yamal and a controlling midfield to the fore under Luis de la Fuente. Belgium, under Rudi Garcia, arrive with momentum after routing the USA 4-1, Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku in form. With a draw heading to extra time, backing Spain to avoid a 90-minute defeat is the measured call in a finely poised tie.

AI Model Leaderboard

Which model predicts best — graded on finished World Cup matches
  1. 1 DeepSeek 82/102 correct 80%
  2. 2 Claude 76/102 correct 75%
  3. 3 Gemini 74/102 correct 73%
  4. 4 ChatGPT 63/102 correct 62%
Spain — recent matches
06 Jul 2026 Portugal 1 — 0 W
02 Jul 2026 Austria 3 — 0 W
27 Jun 2026 Uruguay 1 — 0 W
21 Jun 2026 Saudi Arabia 4 — 0 W
15 Jun 2026 Cape Verde Islands 0 — 0 D
Belgium — recent matches
07 Jul 2026 USA 4 — 1 W
01 Jul 2026 Senegal 3 — 2 W
27 Jun 2026 New Zealand 5 — 1 W
21 Jun 2026 Iran 0 — 0 D
15 Jun 2026 Egypt 1 — 1 D

Squad Availability

Injured · Suspended

Spain

No reported absences

Belgium

A. Onana

Key Players

Spain
Lamine Yamal RW Barcelona · 20+ caps · 7 G
Nico Williams LW Barcelona · 25+ caps
Pedri CM Barcelona · 30+ caps
Rodri CDM Man City · 60+ caps
Álvaro Morata ST Como · 80+ caps · 36 G · Captain
Belgium
Kevin De Bruyne AM Napoli · 110+ caps · 30 G · Captain
Romelu Lukaku ST Napoli · 110+ caps · 85 G
Jeremy Doku LW Man City · 25+ caps
Youri Tielemans CM Aston Villa · 75+ caps

Injuries

Spain
None reported
Belgium
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: SoFi Stadium
Capacity: 70,000
A climate-sheltered Los Angeles venue under a fixed canopy; June in Inglewood is mild and dry (around 20–24°C), so conditions are rarely a decisive factor.

Suspensions

Spain
None reported
Belgium
None reported

Team’s other matches

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