Merino strikes late again as Spain edge Belgium to reach the semis
Spain are into the semi-finals after Mikel Merino's late winner settled a tight quarter-final with Belgium 2-1 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. It was the second time in the knockout stage that Merino has delivered a decisive late goal, having also broken Portuguese hearts in the Round of 16, and his intervention spared a Spanish side that had dominated possession but too often lacked a cutting edge. Belgium pushed Spain hard and will feel they deserved more, but their wait for a return to the last four goes on.
Match summary: Spain lead, Belgium respond, Merino decides
Spain settled quickly and took the lead in the first half, their patient build-up finally rewarded as they went in front. Belgium, who had impressed in thrashing the United States 4-1 in the previous round, refused to buckle and levelled to set up a tense finale. Spain controlled the ball for long spells but were wasteful in the final third, with Lamine Yamal a constant threat down the right yet unable to find the finishing touch to match his creativity. Just as the tie looked destined for extra time, Merino arrived once more, timing his run and finishing to send Spain through and break Belgian resistance at the death.
A clutch habit and a nearly-man's lament
Merino's knack for the decisive late goal is fast becoming one of the tournament's defining subplots — twice now in the knockouts he has been the man to settle it, and his value to Luis de la Fuente's side has never been clearer. Spain's superiority did not always translate into chances, and de la Fuente will want more ruthlessness from a forward line built around the prodigious Yamal if they are to go all the way. For Belgium, elimination is a bitter blow: a golden generation's successors had dreamed of a first semi-final since 2018, and having run Spain so close, they exit with regret rather than reward.
What's next: Spain meet France in Dallas
Spain go through to a mouth-watering semi-final against France on July 14 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, two unbeaten sides colliding for a place in the final. Three of our four AI models called it, led by the DeepSeek double chance on Spain; only the under 2.5 goals call missed as the tie produced three. Belgium head home to reflect on a campaign that promised much and ended agonisingly short.
Quarter-finals between elite European sides often turn cautious, and with Spain's patient control against Belgium's counter-attacking threat, both may prioritise not losing. That points to a tight, low-scoring affair — under 2.5 goals reads as the value angle at SoFi.
C
ChatGPT GPT
by OpenAI
🎯 63/102 (62%) · +12.7% ROI
✓ Won
PickSpain to winWin 11.64odds
Spain's quality, control and tournament trajectory give them the edge. Against a Belgium side that was ruthless against the USA but will face a sterner test here, ChatGPT's read backs de la Fuente's men to impose their game and win inside 90 minutes.
G
Gemini 2.5 PRO
by Google DeepMind
🎯 74/102 (73%) · +9.4% ROI
✓ Won
PickBelgium under 1.5 goalsTotal Team 2 Under: 1.51.26odds
Spain's dominance of the ball should limit Belgium's opportunities. While the Red Devils carry a threat in De Ketelaere and Lukaku, Gemini's model expects Spain's control to keep Belgium's output under 1.5 goals.
D
DeepSeek R1
by DeepSeek
🏆 82/102 (80%) · +15.9% ROI
✓ Won
PickSpain or draw1X1.19odds
DeepSeek's model makes Spain favourites in this heavyweight quarter-final: the European champions are growing into the tournament, having ended a long knockout drought against Portugal, with Lamine Yamal and a controlling midfield to the fore under Luis de la Fuente. Belgium, under Rudi Garcia, arrive with momentum after routing the USA 4-1, Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku in form. With a draw heading to extra time, backing Spain to avoid a 90-minute defeat is the measured call in a finely poised tie.
AI Model Leaderboard
Which model predicts best — graded on finished World Cup matches
1DeepSeek82/102 correct80%
2Claude76/102 correct75%
3Gemini74/102 correct73%
4ChatGPT63/102 correct62%
Spain — recent matches
06 Jul 2026Portugal1 — 0W
02 Jul 2026Austria3 — 0W
27 Jun 2026Uruguay1 — 0W
21 Jun 2026Saudi Arabia4 — 0W
15 Jun 2026Cape Verde Islands0 — 0D
Belgium — recent matches
07 Jul 2026USA4 — 1W
01 Jul 2026Senegal3 — 2W
27 Jun 2026New Zealand5 — 1W
21 Jun 2026Iran0 — 0D
15 Jun 2026Egypt1 — 1D
Squad Availability
✚ Injured ·■ Suspended
Spain
No reported absences
Belgium
✚A. Onana
Key Players
Spain
Lamine YamalRWBarcelona · 20+ caps · 7 G
Nico WilliamsLWBarcelona · 25+ caps
PedriCMBarcelona · 30+ caps
RodriCDMMan City · 60+ caps
Álvaro MorataSTComo · 80+ caps · 36 G · Captain
Belgium
Kevin De BruyneAMNapoli · 110+ caps · 30 G · Captain
Romelu LukakuSTNapoli · 110+ caps · 85 G
Jeremy DokuLWMan City · 25+ caps
Youri TielemansCMAston Villa · 75+ caps
Injuries
Spain
None reported
Belgium
None reported
Venue · Context
Stadium: SoFi Stadium
Capacity: 70,000
A climate-sheltered Los Angeles venue under a fixed canopy; June in Inglewood is mild and dry (around 20–24°C), so conditions are rarely a decisive factor.