Spain suffocate France to reach their first final since 2010
Spain produced a masterclass to beat France 2-0 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington and reach their first World Cup final since 2010, the year they were crowned champions. Mikel Oyarzabal's first-half penalty and a second-half strike from Pedro Porro settled a semi-final billed as the “final before the final,” and in truth Spain were worthy winners by a distance, controlling the game from the first whistle and never allowing the tournament's pre-match favourites a foothold. It is a third successive summer in which Spain have knocked France out of a major tournament.
Match summary: Oyarzabal from the spot, Porro doubles it
Spain took command early and were rewarded on 22 minutes: teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, celebrating his 18th birthday, drew a foul as Lucas Digne combined a handball and a kick in the box, and Oyarzabal stepped up to convert from the spot — his fifth goal of the tournament and his 30th in 60 Spain caps. It was the first time France had trailed in seven matches. Spain continued to dominate possession and territory after the break and doubled their lead on 58 minutes through Porro, who finished to put the tie beyond France. Behind them, goalkeeper Unai Simon preserved a sixth clean sheet of the campaign as Kylian Mbappe, level with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race, was kept quiet throughout.
A Spanish stranglehold and a French reckoning
This was Spain at their suffocating best under Luis de la Fuente — a sixth clean sheet underlining the platform on which their run has been built, with Yamal's brilliance the creative spark. Beating France for a third straight summer in a knockout setting cements their status as the continent's dominant force. For France it is a chastening night: the top-ranked side and many analysts' favourites are out at the semi-final stage, Mbappe unable to make his mark and Didier Deschamps' team second best from start to finish. They must regroup for a third-place playoff they will not have wanted.
What's next: a final with Argentina
Spain march on to a World Cup final against Argentina on July 19 at MetLife Stadium, one win from a second world title. Only one of our four AI models called this one: the under 2.5 goals read landed, but the double chance on France missed as Spain won at a canter. France drop into the third-place playoff against England on July 18 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Claude's model expects a cagey, tactical semi-final between two of the tournament's most controlled sides. France and Spain both defend well and pick their moments, and marquee last-four ties between elite teams often stay tight. With extra time a live possibility and neither side likely to over-commit, under 2.5 goals looks the value play at AT&T Stadium.
C
ChatGPT GPT
by OpenAI
🎯 63/102 (62%) · +12.7% ROI
✗ Lost
PickFrance to winWin 12.39odds
ChatGPT's model gives France a slight edge as Opta's tournament favourites, roared on as the home side and carrying Kylian Mbappe in irresistible form. Deschamps' depth and knockout pedigree tilt a fine contest their way. Spain will control possession, but France's cutting edge points to Les Bleus winning inside 90 minutes.
G
Gemini 2.5 PRO
by Google DeepMind
🎯 74/102 (73%) · +9.4% ROI
✗ Lost
PickSpain under 1.5 goalsTotal Team 2 Under: 1.51.46odds
Gemini's model leans on France's defensive solidity to contain a Spanish attack still searching for ruthlessness. For all their possession and Yamal's spark, Spain have often been wasteful, and France's organised back line has conceded sparingly on this run. Spain to stay under 1.5 goals is the angle at AT&T Stadium.
D
DeepSeek R1
by DeepSeek
🏆 82/102 (80%) · +15.9% ROI
✗ Lost
PickFrance or draw1X1.37odds
DeepSeek's model rates this a near coin-flip between two unbeaten giants, with France marginally favoured at home. Deschamps' side carry Kylian Mbappe's Golden Boot form and match-winning depth, while de la Fuente's Spain, inspired by Lamine Yamal, dominate the ball and are riding Mikel Merino's late heroics. In so fine a tie, with a draw heading to extra time, backing France to avoid a 90-minute defeat is the measured call.
AI Model Leaderboard
Which model predicts best — graded on finished World Cup matches
1DeepSeek82/102 correct80%
2Claude76/102 correct75%
3Gemini74/102 correct73%
4ChatGPT63/102 correct62%
France — recent matches
09 Jul 2026Morocco2 — 0W
04 Jul 2026Paraguay1 — 0W
30 Jun 2026Sweden3 — 0W
26 Jun 2026Norway4 — 1W
22 Jun 2026Iraq3 — 0W
Spain — recent matches
10 Jul 2026Belgium2 — 1W
06 Jul 2026Portugal1 — 0W
02 Jul 2026Austria3 — 0W
27 Jun 2026Uruguay1 — 0W
21 Jun 2026Saudi Arabia4 — 0W
05.06.2025SpainvsFrance5 — 4
09.07.2024SpainvsFrance2 — 1
10.10.2021SpainvsFrance1 — 2
28.03.2017FrancevsSpain0 — 2
23.06.2012SpainvsFrance2 — 0
Key Players
France
Kylian MbappéSTReal Madrid · 85+ caps · 51 G · Captain
Antoine GriezmannAMAtlético · 135+ caps · 44 G
Aurélien TchouaméniCDMReal Madrid · 35+ caps
Ousmane DembéléRWPSG · 50+ caps · 6 G
William SalibaCBArsenal · 20+ caps
Spain
Lamine YamalRWBarcelona · 20+ caps · 7 G
Nico WilliamsLWBarcelona · 25+ caps
PedriCMBarcelona · 30+ caps
RodriCDMMan City · 60+ caps
Álvaro MorataSTComo · 80+ caps · 36 G · Captain
Injuries
France
None reported
Spain
None reported
Venue · Context
Stadium: AT&T Stadium
Capacity: 80,000
Arlington's retractable roof and air-conditioning neutralise the fierce Texas June heat (32–36°C outside); with the roof closed the game is played in controlled, fast conditions.