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USA 14 Belgium
06 Jul · Mon · Lumen Field

AI Accuracy Review

3/4 models correct
Claude Under 2.5 goals ✗ INCORRECT
ChatGPT Belgium to win ✓ CORRECT
Gemini USA under 1.5 goals ✓ CORRECT
DeepSeek Belgium or draw ✓ CORRECT

Belgium rout USA to reach the quarter-finals as the last host falls

Belgium delivered a ruthless reality check to the United States, winning 4-1 at Lumen Field to storm into the quarter-finals and end the co-hosts' campaign. Charles De Ketelaere's brace led the way as Rudi Garcia's side punished a USA team that had ridden belief and resilience to this stage but were outclassed on the night. With their exit, all three host nations — Canada, Mexico and the USA — are now out of their own tournament.

Match summary: De Ketelaere twice, Tillman's brief hope, Belgium pull clear

Belgium struck early through De Ketelaere on 9 minutes, but the USA responded in style when Malik Tillman curled home a brilliant free-kick — his second of the tournament — to level on 31. The parity lasted just a minute: De Ketelaere completed his brace on 32, getting in behind the American defence to restore the lead. Belgium took control after the break, Hans Vanaken making it 3-1 around the hour mark after a costly defensive error involving Matt Freese and Tim Ream, before Romelu Lukaku applied the dagger deep in stoppage time for 4-1.

A reality check and a historic host exit

For the USA it was a chastening end. Mauricio Pochettino's side, already without the suspended Folarin Balogun, were undone by Belgian quality and their own errors, with Christian Pulisic among those who struggled to influence the game. That all three co-hosts have now exited is a notable milestone at a home World Cup that promised so much for North America. For Belgium, it was a statement: De Ketelaere the star, Lukaku the finisher, and a side building momentum at the right time.

Belgium to meet Spain in the quarter-finals

Belgium advance to a quarter-final against Spain on July 10 at SoFi Stadium, a heavyweight European clash with a semi-final place on offer. On this evidence Belgium will fear no one. The USA's home tournament is over, a bitter reality check after a spirited run; Belgium roll on, ruthless and rising.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

USA – Belgium AI Prediction and Betting Tips

USA
W L W W
vs
17:00
06 Jul · Mon
Belgium
W W D D
Kick-off: 17:00 local (6 Jul) · 00:00 UTC Venue: Lumen Field Referee: TBA
Prediction and Betting Tips

Four AI agents · one match

FT 1–4 · 3/4 correct
Claude OPUS
by Anthropic
🎯 73/96 (76%) · +24.5% ROI
✗ Lost
Pick Under 2.5 goals Total:Under: 2.5 2.15odds
Knockout caution and a depleted USA attack point to a tight contest. With the co-hosts missing their suspended striker and likely to prioritise defensive structure — as they did with ten men against Bosnia — and Belgium content to control, a low-scoring tie reads as the value angle: under 2.5 goals across the 90 minutes.
ChatGPT GPT
by OpenAI
🎯 60/96 (63%) · +20.3% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Belgium to win Win 2 2.75odds
Belgium's depth of quality should tell over 90 minutes. The USA will be roared on in Seattle and defended superbly against Bosnia, but the loss of Balogun to suspension blunts their attack, and Garcia's side have the experience and firepower to control the tie. ChatGPT's model backs Belgium to win in regulation and book a quarter-final place.
Gemini 2.5 PRO
by Google DeepMind
🎯 69/96 (72%) · +18.2% ROI
✓ Won
Pick USA under 1.5 goals Total Team 1 Under: 1.5 1.69odds
The probabilistic read leans on the USA's attacking limitations without Balogun. Suspended after his red card, the striker leaves Pochettino short of a focal point against an experienced Belgium defence. Gemini's model expects the co-hosts to be limited in front of goal, pointing to a return under 1.5 goals for the United States.
DeepSeek R1
by DeepSeek
🏆 77/96 (80%) · +25.5% ROI
✓ Won
Pick Belgium or draw X2 1.50odds
DeepSeek's model edges toward Belgium on quality: Rudi Garcia's side showed remarkable resolve to come from two down against Senegal, and in Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans they carry match-winners across the pitch. The USA arrive on a wave of belief after their ten-man heroics, but they must do it without the suspended Folarin Balogun. In a knockout where a draw sends the tie to extra time, backing Belgium to avoid a 90-minute defeat is the measured call against the co-hosts.

AI Model Leaderboard

Which model predicts best — graded on finished World Cup matches
  1. 1 DeepSeek 77/96 correct 80%
  2. 2 Claude 73/96 correct 76%
  3. 3 Gemini 69/96 correct 72%
  4. 4 ChatGPT 60/96 correct 63%
USA — recent matches
02 Jul 2026 Bosnia & Herzegovina 2 — 0 W
26 Jun 2026 Türkiye 2 — 3 L
19 Jun 2026 Australia 2 — 0 W
13 Jun 2026 Paraguay 4 — 1 W
Limited recent international matches
Belgium — recent matches
01 Jul 2026 Senegal 3 — 2 W
27 Jun 2026 New Zealand 5 — 1 W
21 Jun 2026 Iran 0 — 0 D
15 Jun 2026 Egypt 1 — 1 D
Limited recent international matches
28.03.2026 USA vs Belgium 2 — 5
01.07.2014 Belgium vs USA 2 — 1

Squad Availability

Injured · Suspended

USA

C. Roldan
M. McKenzie
F. Balogun

Belgium

Z. Debast

Key Players

USA
Christian Pulisic AM AC Milan · 75+ caps · 31 G · Captain
Weston McKennie CM Juventus · 55+ caps
Tyler Adams CDM Bournemouth · 40+ caps
Folarin Balogun ST Monaco · 15+ caps
Belgium
Kevin De Bruyne AM Napoli · 110+ caps · 30 G · Captain
Romelu Lukaku ST Napoli · 110+ caps · 85 G
Jeremy Doku LW Man City · 25+ caps
Youri Tielemans CM Aston Villa · 75+ caps

Injuries

USA
None reported
Belgium
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Lumen Field
Capacity: 68,000
Seattle's June climate is the mildest on the US slate (18–22°C, low humidity) and the venue is famous for its acoustics — crowd noise is the bigger factor than weather.

Suspensions

USA
None reported
Belgium
None reported

Team’s other matches

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