Belgium rout USA to reach the quarter-finals as the last host falls
Belgium delivered a ruthless reality check to the United States, winning 4-1 at Lumen Field to storm into the quarter-finals and end the co-hosts' campaign. Charles De Ketelaere's brace led the way as Rudi Garcia's side punished a USA team that had ridden belief and resilience to this stage but were outclassed on the night. With their exit, all three host nations — Canada, Mexico and the USA — are now out of their own tournament.
Match summary: De Ketelaere twice, Tillman's brief hope, Belgium pull clear
Belgium struck early through De Ketelaere on 9 minutes, but the USA responded in style when Malik Tillman curled home a brilliant free-kick — his second of the tournament — to level on 31. The parity lasted just a minute: De Ketelaere completed his brace on 32, getting in behind the American defence to restore the lead. Belgium took control after the break, Hans Vanaken making it 3-1 around the hour mark after a costly defensive error involving Matt Freese and Tim Ream, before Romelu Lukaku applied the dagger deep in stoppage time for 4-1.
A reality check and a historic host exit
For the USA it was a chastening end. Mauricio Pochettino's side, already without the suspended Folarin Balogun, were undone by Belgian quality and their own errors, with Christian Pulisic among those who struggled to influence the game. That all three co-hosts have now exited is a notable milestone at a home World Cup that promised so much for North America. For Belgium, it was a statement: De Ketelaere the star, Lukaku the finisher, and a side building momentum at the right time.
Belgium to meet Spain in the quarter-finals
Belgium advance to a quarter-final against Spain on July 10 at SoFi Stadium, a heavyweight European clash with a semi-final place on offer. On this evidence Belgium will fear no one. The USA's home tournament is over, a bitter reality check after a spirited run; Belgium roll on, ruthless and rising.
Knockout caution and a depleted USA attack point to a tight contest. With the co-hosts missing their suspended striker and likely to prioritise defensive structure — as they did with ten men against Bosnia — and Belgium content to control, a low-scoring tie reads as the value angle: under 2.5 goals across the 90 minutes.
C
ChatGPT GPT
by OpenAI
🎯 60/96 (63%) · +20.3% ROI
✓ Won
PickBelgium to winWin 22.75odds
Belgium's depth of quality should tell over 90 minutes. The USA will be roared on in Seattle and defended superbly against Bosnia, but the loss of Balogun to suspension blunts their attack, and Garcia's side have the experience and firepower to control the tie. ChatGPT's model backs Belgium to win in regulation and book a quarter-final place.
G
Gemini 2.5 PRO
by Google DeepMind
🎯 69/96 (72%) · +18.2% ROI
✓ Won
PickUSA under 1.5 goalsTotal Team 1 Under: 1.51.69odds
The probabilistic read leans on the USA's attacking limitations without Balogun. Suspended after his red card, the striker leaves Pochettino short of a focal point against an experienced Belgium defence. Gemini's model expects the co-hosts to be limited in front of goal, pointing to a return under 1.5 goals for the United States.
D
DeepSeek R1
by DeepSeek
🏆 77/96 (80%) · +25.5% ROI
✓ Won
PickBelgium or drawX21.50odds
DeepSeek's model edges toward Belgium on quality: Rudi Garcia's side showed remarkable resolve to come from two down against Senegal, and in Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans they carry match-winners across the pitch. The USA arrive on a wave of belief after their ten-man heroics, but they must do it without the suspended Folarin Balogun. In a knockout where a draw sends the tie to extra time, backing Belgium to avoid a 90-minute defeat is the measured call against the co-hosts.
AI Model Leaderboard
Which model predicts best — graded on finished World Cup matches
1DeepSeek77/96 correct80%
2Claude73/96 correct76%
3Gemini69/96 correct72%
4ChatGPT60/96 correct63%
USA — recent matches
02 Jul 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina2 — 0W
26 Jun 2026Türkiye2 — 3L
19 Jun 2026Australia2 — 0W
13 Jun 2026Paraguay4 — 1W
Limited recent international matches
Belgium — recent matches
01 Jul 2026Senegal3 — 2W
27 Jun 2026New Zealand5 — 1W
21 Jun 2026Iran0 — 0D
15 Jun 2026Egypt1 — 1D
Limited recent international matches
28.03.2026USAvsBelgium2 — 5
01.07.2014BelgiumvsUSA2 — 1
Squad Availability
✚ Injured ·■ Suspended
USA
✚C. Roldan
✚M. McKenzie
■F. Balogun
Belgium
✚Z. Debast
Key Players
USA
Christian PulisicAMAC Milan · 75+ caps · 31 G · Captain
Weston McKennieCMJuventus · 55+ caps
Tyler AdamsCDMBournemouth · 40+ caps
Folarin BalogunSTMonaco · 15+ caps
Belgium
Kevin De BruyneAMNapoli · 110+ caps · 30 G · Captain
Romelu LukakuSTNapoli · 110+ caps · 85 G
Jeremy DokuLWMan City · 25+ caps
Youri TielemansCMAston Villa · 75+ caps
Injuries
USA
None reported
Belgium
None reported
Venue · Context
Stadium: Lumen Field
Capacity: 68,000
Seattle's June climate is the mildest on the US slate (18–22°C, low humidity) and the venue is famous for its acoustics — crowd noise is the bigger factor than weather.